An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Jian ZHENG; Qinyu LIU; Chuanyang WANG

doi:10.1007/s00343-017-6267-2

Your Location：

Home >

Browse articles >

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Physics | Updated：2023-05-19

- An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability
- Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 36, Issue 2, Pages: 193-204(2018)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China, and Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266071, China
  2.Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266000, China
- Author bio：
  
  ZHENG Jian, zhengjian@qdio.ac.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-017-6267-2
  CLC：
- Received：08 October 2016，
  
  Accepted：21 November 2016，
  
  Online First：04 January 2018，
  
  Published：2018-03
- Accepted：
Scan QR Code
Jian ZHENG, Qinyu LIU, Chuanyang WANG. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2018, 36(2): 193-204.
DOI：

Jian ZHENG, Qinyu LIU, Chuanyang WANG. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2018, 36(2): 193-204. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-017-6267-2.

摘要

Abstract

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations

another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations

however

the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e.

in the climatological rainy region

the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1

even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation

the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore

tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments

with and without global warming.

关键词

Keywords

references

Alexander M A. 2010. Extratropical air-sea interaction, SST variability and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In : Sun D, Bryan F eds. Climate Dynamics: Why does Climate Vary. AGU Monograph #189, Washington DC, p. 123-148.

Bjerknes J. 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97(3):163-172.

Chen M Y, Xie P P, Janowiak J E, Arkin P A. 2002. Global land precipitation:a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3(3):249-266.

Chou C, Neelin J D, Chen C A, Tu J Y. 2009. Evaluating the "rich-get-richer" mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 22(8):1 982-2 005.

Compo G P, Whitaker J S, Sardeshmukh P D, Matsui N, Allan R J, Yin X, Gleason B E, Vose R S, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel R I, Grant A N, Groisman P Y, Jones P D, Kruk M, Kruger A C, Marshall G J, Maugeri M, Mok H Y, Nordli Ø, Ross T F, Trigo R M, Wang X L, Woodruff S D, and Worley S J. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project.Quarterly J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137(654):1-28.

Dai A G. 2012. The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923-2010. Climate Dyn., 41(3):633-646.

Deser C, Phillips A S, Hurrell J W. 2004. Pacific interdecadal climate variability:linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17(16):3 109-3 124.

Dong B W, Lu R Y. 2013. Interdecadal enhancement of the walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30(2):247-262.

Dong L, Zhou T J, Chen X L. 2014. Changes of Pacific decadal variability in the twentieth century driven by internal variability, greenhouse gases, and aerosols. Geophys. Res.Lett., 41(23):8 570-8 577, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062269.

England M H, McGregor S, Spence P, Meehl G A, Timmermann A, Cai W J, Sen Gupta A, McPhaden M J, Purich A, Santoso A. 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change, 4(3):222-227, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106.

Folland C K, Renwick J A, Salinger M J, Mullan A B. 2002. Relative influences of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific convergence zone.Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(13), https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014201.

Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K. 2010. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48(4):RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345.

Held I M, Soden B J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19(21):5 686-5 699.

Hirahara S, Ishii M, Fukuda Y. 2014. Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J.Climate, 27(1):57-75.

Huang B Y, Banzon V F, Freeman E, Lawrimore J, Liu W, Peterson T C, Smith T M, Thorne P W, Woodruff S D, Zhang H M. 2015. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part Ⅰ:upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 28(3):911-930, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1.

Huang P, Xie S P, Hu K M, Huang G, Huang R H. 2013.Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat. Geosci., 6(5):357-361.

Huang P, Xie S P. 2015. Mechanisms of change in ENSOinduced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate. Nat. Geosci., 8(12):922-926.

Huang P. 2014. Regional response of annual-mean tropical rainfall to global warming. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15(2):103-109.

Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77(3):437-471.

Kosaka Y, Xie S P. 2013. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501(7467):403-407, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534.

Liu Q Y, Wen N, Liu Z Y. 2006. An observational study of the impact of the North Pacific SST on the atmosphere.Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(18):L18611, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026082.

Liu W, Huang B Y, Thorne P W, Banzon V F, Zhang H M, Freeman E, Lawrimore J, Peterson T C, Smith T M, Woodruff S D. 2015. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4):part Ⅱ. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations. J. Climate, 28(3):931-951, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00007.1.

Liu W, Xie S P, Lu J. 2016. Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus. Nat. Commun., 7:10 926, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10926.

Liu Z Y. 2012. Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability:a historical perspective. J. Climate, 25(6):1 963-1 995, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3980.1.

Mantua, N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Francis R C. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78(6):1 069-1 079.

Mantua, N J, Hare S R. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation.J. Oceanography, 58(1), 35-44, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1015820616384.

Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, Hu A X, Trenberth K E. 2011. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, 1(7):360-364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229.

Meehl G A, Hu A X, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J, Trenberth K E. 2013. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J. Climate, 26(18):7 298-7 310, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1.

Neelin J D, Chou C, Su H. 2003. Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys.Res. Lett., 30(24):2 275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018625.

Nitta T, Yamada S. 1989. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and is relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 67(3):375-383.

Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V. 1999. Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia.Climate Dyn., 15(5):319-324.

Power S, Delage F, Chung C, Kociuba G, Keay K. 2013.Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature, 502(7472):541-545.

Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C, Kaplan A. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J.Geophys. Res., 108(D14):4 407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.

Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B. 2014. GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl.Climatol., 115(1):15-40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.

Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, Lawrimore J. 2008.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21(10):2 283-2 296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1.

Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor.Soc., 93(4):485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMSD-11-00094.1.

Tokinaga H, Xie S P, Deser C, Kosaka Y, Okumura Y M. 2012.Slowdown of the walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature, 491(7424):439-443, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11576.

Trenberth K E, Hurrell J W. 1994. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9(6):303-319.

Vecchi G A, Soden B J. 2007 Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20(17):4 316-4 340.

Watanabe M, Suzuki T, O'ishi R, Komuro Y, Watanabe S, Emori S, Takemura T, Chikira M, Ogura T, Sekiguchi M, Takata K, Yamazaki D, Yokohata T, Nozawa T, Hasumi H, Tatebe H, Kimoto M. 2010. Improved climate simulation by MIROC5:mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23(23):6 312-6 335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1.

Wu R, Xie S-P. 2003. On equatorial Pacific surface wind changes around 1977:NCEP-NCAR reanalysis versus COADS observation. J. Climate, 16(1):167-173.

Xie S P, Deser C, Vecchi G A, Ma J, Teng H Y, Wittenberg A T. 2010. Global warming pattern formation:sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23(4):966-986.

Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Battisti D S. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability:1900-93. J. Climate, 10(5):1 004-1 020.

Views

Downloads

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

Submit

Tools

Publicity Resources

Characteristics and possible influential factors of marine heat wave in the Bohai Sea

A deep learning-based hybrid model for improved SST prediction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Salinity effect-induced ENSO amplitude modulation in association with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Contrasting physical mechanisms of yellowfin tuna fluctuations between the western and eastern Indian Ocean

Effects of Rake Measurements on Turbine Efficiency

Related Author

Hailun HE

Yifan LI

Shouchang WU

Pengfei LIN

Yiwen LI

Yao XU

Yuanzhe MA

Bowen XIE

Related Institution

Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental Engineering, Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Environmental Science

School of Ocean Sciences, China University of Geosciences

College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Marine Academy of Zhejiang Province

Address：Editorial Office of JOL, 88 Haijun Rd. Qingdao, 266000, China
Tel：+86-532-82898754 Email：jol@qdio.ac.cn
Technical support is provided by Beijing Founder electronics co., LTD 京ICP备09064830号-19 京公网安备11010802024621
It is recommended to read the content of this site in Chrome&IE9+. Please switch to extreme mode in browser 360.
Cookies We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. By continuing, you agree to the use of cookies.

⁰