An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Dunxin Hu; Lejiang Yu

doi:10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9

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An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Updated：2023-05-16

- An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 26, Issue 4, Pages: 421-424(2008)
- Affiliations：
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Chinese Academy of Sciences
  2. Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences
  3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Science
  4. Polar Research Institute of China
- Author bio：
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9
  CLC：
- Online First：23 January 2009，
  
  Published：2008
- Accepted：
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Hu, D., Yu, L. An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset., Chin. J. Ocean. Limnol. 26, 421–424 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9
DOI：

Hu, D., Yu, L. An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset., Chin. J. Ocean. Limnol. 26, 421–424 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9 DOI：

摘要

Abstract

In the present paper

correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955–1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers

implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970

the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1°×1°) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3°N/138°E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2°N/137°E

and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2°N/137°E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer

if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand

if the situation does like the one before 1970

the representative station is determined at 13°S/74°E with relatively poor correlation

meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

关键词

Keywords

references

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