An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency

Guilin LIU; Siyu DING; Shichun SONG; Bokai YANG; Pengyu ZHU; Liping WANG

doi:10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4

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An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency

Physics | Updated：2026-05-07

- An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency
- An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency
- 海洋湖沼学报(英文) 2026年44卷第2期页码：545-559
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
  2.Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group Co., Ltd., Qingdao 266500, China
  3.School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
- Author bio：
  
  dsy18841262628@163.com
- Funds：
  
  the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52071306)
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2024-12-05，
  
  录用：2025-04-29，
  
  网络首发：2025-06-06，
  
  纸质出版：2026-03-01
- Accepted：
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Guilin LIU, Siyu DING, Shichun SONG, 等. An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2026,44(2):545-559.

LIU Guilin,DING Siyu,SONG Shichun,et al.An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2026,44(02):545-559.
Guilin LIU, Siyu DING, Shichun SONG, 等. An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2026,44(2):545-559. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4.

LIU Guilin,DING Siyu,SONG Shichun,et al.An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2026,44(02):545-559. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4.

摘要

Abstract

With the development of methods for predicting extreme hydrological elements using probabilistic approaches

several commonly used methods have emerged for analyzing the risk of storm surge disasters

including the Annual Maxima method

the Peak-Over-Threshold method

the Gumbel distribution

and the Weibull distribution. Meanwhile

and emphases have been placed on assessing and comparing the applicability and stability of these various methods. To evaluate the rationality of different methods

we an entropy uncertainty analysis method was introduced based on information utilization efficiency

in which the sample Stochastic uncertainty is measured by the ratio of information entropy before and after sampling

i.e.

the information extraction efficiency of the sampling method. Additionally

the cognitive uncertainty of the research method is assessed by the ratio of mutual information between the model and the sample to the information entropy of the sample

i.e.

the information extraction efficiency of the mathematical model. Furthermore

we incorporated the group probability calculation method

information entropy and mutual information theory to analyze and calculate the entropy uncertainty more accurately. By applying this analysis to the design wave height and the recurrence period projected in the sea area west Guangdong of China

we believed that the most reasonable hazard assessment method shall be based on the over-threshold method combined with the Pareto distribution. Conversely

the assessment method based on the process extreme value method is deemed insufficiently reasonable and requires further research.

关键词

Keywords

references

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