Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

Xue HAN; Junqiao FENG; Yunlong LU; Dunxin HU

doi:10.1007/s00343-023-2315-2

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Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

Physics | Updated：2024-10-15

- Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models
- Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models
- 海洋湖沼学报(英文) 2024年42卷第1期页码：24-40
- Affiliations：
  
  1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  2.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  5.Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
- Author bio：
  
  fengjunqiao@qdio.ac.cn
- Funds：
  
  the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(41976027)
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-023-2315-2
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2022-09-06，
  
  录用：2022-10-20，
  
  网络首发：2022-12-23，
  
  纸质出版：2024-01-03
- Accepted：
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Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2024,42(1):24-40.

HAN Xue,FENG Junqiao,LU Yunlong,et al.Research Paper Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2024,42(01):24-40.
Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2024,42(1):24-40. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-023-2315-2.

HAN Xue,FENG Junqiao,LU Yunlong,et al.Research Paper Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2024,42(01):24-40. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-023-2315-2.

摘要

Abstract

The Pacific subtropical cells (STCs) are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics

and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability. The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) and ocean reanalysis products. Firstly

the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport. The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed. The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°‍N are -0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming

respectively

which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field. There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate

and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°‍N. In addition

compared with ocean reanalysis products

the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence

and thus may lose some sea surface temperature (SST) driving force

which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model. The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming

with a general agreement across models.

关键词

Keywords

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