Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on CMIP5 models

Hongjian TAN; Rongshuo CAI; Yunlong HUO; Haixia GUO

doi:10.1007/s00343-019-9134-5

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Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models

Special Section on Indo-Pac Project | Updated：2023-04-27

- Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models
- Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models
- 海洋湖沼学报（英文） 2020年38卷第6期页码：1676-1691
- Affiliations：
  
  Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
- Author bio：
  
  CAI Rongshuo, cairongshuo@tio.org.cn
- Funds：
  
  the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604901);the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604902);the Scientific Research Foundation of the Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, China(TIO2017030);the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation(17ZDA172);© Chinese Society for Oceanology and Limnology, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-019-9134-5
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2019-05-27，
  
  录用：2019-8-29，
  
  网络首发：2019-10-11，
  
  纸质出版：2020-11
- Accepted：
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Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models[J]. 海洋湖沼学报（英文）, 2020,38(6):1676-1691.

Hongjian TAN, Rongshuo CAI, Yunlong HUO, et al. Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2020, 38(6): 1676-1691.
Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models[J]. 海洋湖沼学报（英文）, 2020,38(6):1676-1691. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-9134-5.

Hongjian TAN, Rongshuo CAI, Yunlong HUO, et al. Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2020, 38(6): 1676-1691. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-9134-5.

摘要

Abstract

The increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have caused fundamental changes to the physical and biogeochemical properties of the oceans

and it will continue to occur in the foreseeable future. Based on the outputs of nine Earth System Models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)

in this study

we provided a synoptic assessment of future changes in the sea surface temperature (SST)

salinity

dissolved oxygen (DO)

seawater pH

and marine net primary productivity (NPP) in the coastal China seas over the 21

century. The results show that the mid-high latitude areas of the coastal China seas (East China Seas (ECS)

including the Bohai Sea

Yellow Sea

and East China Sea) will be simultaneously exposed to enhanced warming

deoxygenation

acidification

and decreasing NPP as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitudes of the changes will increase as the greenhouse gas concentrations increase. Under the high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5)

the ECS will experience an SST increase of 3.24±1.23℃

a DO concentration decrease of 10.90±3.92 μmol/L (decrease of 6.3%)

a pH decline of 0.36±0.02

and a NPP reduction of -17.7±6.2 mg/(m

·d) (decrease of 12.9%) relative to the current levels (1980-2005) by the end of this century. The co-occurrence of these changes and their cascade effects are expected to induce considerable biological and ecological responses

thereby making the ECS among the most vulnerable ocean areas to future climate change. Despite high uncertainties

our results have important implications for regional marine assessments.

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Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21st century based on CMIP5 models

Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21st century based on CMIP5 models

DOI：10.1007/s00343-019-9134-5

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references

Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models

Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models