Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province

Qingrong LIU; Jian LI; Chengqing RUAN; Zhonghui YIN; Yan JIAO; Qing SUN; Xihu LIAN; Shan ZHONG

doi:10.1007/s00343-019-8233-7

Your Location：

Home >

Browse articles >

Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province

Updated：2023-05-20

- Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province
- Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province
- 海洋湖沼学报（英文） 2019年37卷第6期页码：2014-2024
- Affiliations：
  
  North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Qingdao 266061, China
- Author bio：
  
  RUAN Chengqing, E-mail:ruanchengqing@ncs.mnr.gov.cn
- Funds：
  
  the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFC1402000);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1706216);the Marine Science and Technology Project of North China Sea Branch of State Oceanic Administration(2018B05)
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-019-8233-7
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2018-09-07，
  
  录用：2018-11-1，
  
  网络首发：2018-12-05，
  
  纸质出版：2019-11
- Accepted：
Scan QR Code
Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province[J]. 海洋湖沼学报（英文）, 2019,37(6):2014-2024.

Qingrong LIU, Jian LI, Chengqing RUAN, et al. Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019, 37(6): 2014-2024.
Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province[J]. 海洋湖沼学报（英文）, 2019,37(6):2014-2024. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-8233-7.

Qingrong LIU, Jian LI, Chengqing RUAN, et al. Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019, 37(6): 2014-2024. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-8233-7.

摘要

Abstract

Sea level rise is a slow-onset disaster. We collected information about the natural and ecological environments

tides and sea levels

and socio-economic aspects to investigate the distribution and zoning of the risks from sea level rise across Shandong Province. The trends in sea level in different counties of Shandong Province were predicted using moving averages and a random dynamic analysis forecasting model

and the model outputs and socio-economic indicators were combined to assess the risks. The results show that the risks of sea level rise along the western coast of Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province were sufficiently large to warrant attention.

关键词

Keywords

references

Al-Harbi K M A S. 2001. Application of the AHP in project management. International Journal of Project Management , 19 (1): 19-27, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00038-1..

Bao C X, Wen S Y, Xu L F, Wu T, Zhao D Z, Huang F R, Xu X G. 2015. The Suizhong coastal erosion risk assessment based on sea level rise. Journal of Catastrophology , 30 (1): 205-210. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Binzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Binzhou Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Binzhou. 392p. (in Chinese)

Bryan B, Harvey N, Belperio T, Bourman B. 2001. Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise. Environmental Modeling & Assessment , 6 (1): 57-65, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011515213106..

Cheng H Q, Ta N, Zhou Y, Zhu J R, Ruan R L, Chen J Y. 2015. Risk assessment and adaptation of fresh water supply in the Changjiang estuary impacted by sea level rise in the Shanghai city. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis , 11 (4): 263-269. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Cui L F, Wang N, Ge Z M, Zhang L Q. 2014. Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology , 25 (2): 553-561. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Ding J, Jiang H D, Ying Y. 2013. Sea level rise prediction and submerging analysis of Zhoushan coastal areas. Journal of Hangzhou Normal University (Natural Science Edition) , 12 (4): 373-378. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Dongying Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Dongying Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Dongying. 508p. [with 11(in Chinese)]

Duan X F, Xu X G. 2008. Research progress and perspective of risk assessment of sea level rise. Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology , (4): 116-122. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Fang W H, Wang J A, Shi P J. 2011. Integrated Risk Governance-Database, Risk Map and Network Platform. Science Press, Beijing. 375p. (in Chinese)

Gornitz V. 1991. Global coastal hazards from future sea level rise. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology , 89 (4): 379-398, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-0182(91)90173-O..

Hallegatte S, Ranger N, Mestre O, Dumas P, Corfee-Morlot J, Herweijer C, Wood R M. 2011. Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen. Climatic Change , 104 (1): 113-137, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9978-3..

Hu H B, Wang Y C, Xiong Y J. 2010. AHP model-based risk assessment of lighting in Beijing. Journal of Natural Disasters , 19 (1): 104-109. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Jiang W G, Li J, Chen Y H, Sheng S X, Zhou G H. 2008. Risk assessment system for regional fl ood disaster (Ⅰ): principle and method. Journal of Natural Disasters , 17 (6): 53-59. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Li X, Duan X F, Liu K X, Chen M C, Zhang Z J. 2014a. The risk assessment research on the sea level rise of Tianjin and Hebei coastal areas. Journal of Catastrophology , 29 (3): 108-114. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Li X, Liu K X, Dong J X, Wang H, Duan X F, Zhang J L, Lin F Z. 2014b. Research on the risk zoning method of sea level rise in China. Marine Forecasts , 31 (2): 41-49. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Liu Q R, Ruan C Q, Zhong S, Li J, Yin Z H, Lian X H. 2018. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation , 68 : 20-30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.01.016..

Nicholls R J, Cazenave A. 2010. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science , 328 (5985): 1 517-1 520. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185782..

Nicholls R J, Hoozemans F M J, Marchand M. 1999. Increasing fl ood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change , 9 (S1): S69-S87, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9..

Qingdao Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Qingdao Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Qingdao. 360p. (in Chinese)

Rizhao Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Rizhao Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Rizhao. 392p. (in Chinese)

Saaty T L. 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Sahin O, Mohamed S. 2014. Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a spatial-temporal assessment framework. Natural Hazards , 70 (1): 395-414, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0818-4..

Shi P J. 2011. Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk of China. Science Press, Beijing. 244p. (in Chinese)

Tian H, Chen Z Y. 1998. Stochastic dynamical analyses for monthly mean sea level along the coast of China. Acta Oceanologica Sinica , 20 (4): 9-16. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Wang N, Zhang L Q, Yuan L, Cao H B. 2012. Research into vulnerability assessment for coastal zones in the context of climate change. Acta Ecologica Sinica , 32 (7): 2 248-2 258, https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201109291437. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Wang W Q, Chen Z Y, Zuo J C. 1999. Empirical mode decomposition method for study of the mean sea level variation along the China coast. Acta Oceanologica Sinica , 21 (6): 102-109. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Wang Y J, Zhang R, Qian L X, Ge S S, Wang F. 2016. Model for probabilistic risk assessment in extreme high water level caused by rising sea level and its application-a case study in Ningbo. Journal of Catastrophology , 31(1): 213-218. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Wei C C, Chien C F, Wang M J J. 2005. An AHP-based approach to ERP system selection. International Journal of Production Economics , 96 (1): 47-62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2004.03.004..

Weifang Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Weifang Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Weifang. 497p. (in Chinese)

Weihai Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Weihai Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Weihai. 505p. (in Chinese)

Wen L J, Jiang C B, Ma Z J, Ding Y, Cao Y Z, Liu G Y. 2016. The general situation of marine disasters in Shandong Province during 2010-2014 and the defense strategies. Ocean Development and Management , 33 (6): 98-104. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Wu S H, Pan T, Liu Y H, Deng H Y, Jiao K W, Lu Q, Feng A Q, Yue X L, Yin Y H, Zhao D S, Gao J B. 2017. Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China. Acta Geographica Sinica , 72 (1): 3-17. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Xu S Y, Wang J, Shi C, Yan J P. 2006. Research of the natural disaster risk on coastal cities. Acta Geographica Sinica , 61 (2): 127-138. (in Chinese with English abstract).

Yantai Municipal Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Yantai Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Yantai. 461p. (in Chinese)

Zhang X X, Xu Z Z, Cheng J Y, Shao M H. 2015. Assessment methods of red tide disaster risk: a case in Liaoning coast. Fisheries Science , 34 (11): 708-713. (in Chinese with English abstract).

浏览量

Downloads

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

Submit

工具集

关联资源

Establishing an assessment framework for the risk of dinoflagellate HABs based on cyst-mapping of marine sediments

Abundance and characteristics of microplastics in shellfish from Jiaozhou Bay, China

Heavy metals in sediments of Yellow Sea and East China Sea: Chemical speciation, distribution, influence factor, and contamination

Vertical physicochemical parameter distributions and health risk assessment for trace metals in water columns in eastern Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania

压电阻抗法表征固体推进剂老化的研究