A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction

Qinting SUN; Jianhua WAN; Shanwei LIU; Jinghui JIANG; Yasir MUHAMMAD

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A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction

Physics | Updated：2024-10-14

- A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction
- A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction
- 海洋湖沼学报(英文) 2023年41卷第5期页码：1629-1642
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Oceanography and Space Informatics, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China
  2.Technology Innovation Center for Maritime Silk Road Marine Resources and Environment Networked Observation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266580, China
- Author bio：
  
  shanweiliu@163.com
- Funds：
  
  the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(17CX02071);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61571009);the Key R&D Program of Shandong Province(2018GHY115046)
- DOI：
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2021-12-13，
  
  录用：2022-03-17，
  
  网络首发：2022-05-31，
  
  纸质出版：2023-09-01
- Accepted：
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A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2023,41(5):1629-1642.

SUN Qinting,WAN Jianhua,LIU Shanwei,et al.A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2023,41(05):1629-1642.
A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2023,41(5):1629-1642. DOI：

SUN Qinting,WAN Jianhua,LIU Shanwei,et al.A new decomposition model of sea level variability for the sea level anomaly time series prediction[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2023,41(05):1629-1642. DOI：

摘要

Abstract

Rising sea level is of great significance to coastal societies; predicting sea level extent in coastal regions is critical. When carrying out predictions

the subsequences obtained using decomposition methods may exhibit a certain regularity and therefore can provide multidimensional information that can be used to improve prediction models. Traditional decomposition methods such as seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess (STL) focus mostly on the fluctuating trend of time series and ignore its impact on prediction. Methods in the signal decomposition domain

such as variational mode decomposition (VMD)

have no physical significance. In response to the above problems

a new decomposition method for sea level anomaly time series prediction (DMSLAP) is proposed. With this method

the trend term in a time series can be isolated and the effects of abnormal sea level change behaviors can be attenuated. We decompose multiperiod characteristics using this method while maintaining the smoothness of the analyzed series. Satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2020 are used in experiments conducted in the study area. The results are then compared with predictions obtained using existing decomposition methods such as the STL and VMD methods and time varying filtering based on empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD). The performance of DMSLAP combined with a prediction method resulted in optimal sea level anomaly (SLA) predictions

with a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.40 cm and a maximum determination coefficient (

) of 0.93 during 2020. The DMSLAP method was more accurate when predicting 1-year data and 3-year data. The TVF-EMD and DMSLAP methods had comparable accura

cies

and the periodic term decomposed by the DMSLAP method was more in line with the actual law than that derived using the TVF-EMD method. Thus

DMSLAP can decompose SLA time series better than existing methods and is an effective tool for obtaining short-term SLA prediction.

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Keywords

references

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