Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

Guilin LIU; Xiuxiu NONG; Yi KOU; Fang WU; Daniel ZHAO; Zongbing YU

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Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

Multi-scale marine dynamics, sea-air interactions and forecasting technology in the South China Sea | Updated：2024-10-12

- Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model
- Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model
- 海洋湖沼学报(英文) 2023年41卷第2期页码：518-531
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
  2.Dornsife College, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA90089, USA
  3.Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA93106, USA
  4.Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge MA02138, USA
  5.State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
- Author bio：
  
  yuzongbing1989@163.com
- Funds：
  
  the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52071306;52101360);the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2019MEE050);the State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering(LP2104)
- DOI：
  中图分类号：
- 收稿：2022-01-30，
  
  纸质出版：2023-03-01
- Accepted：
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Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2023,41(2):518-531.

LIU Guilin,NONG Xiuxiu,KOU Yi,et al.Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2023,41(02):518-531.
Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model[J]. 海洋湖沼学报(英文), 2023,41(2):518-531. DOI：

LIU Guilin,NONG Xiuxiu,KOU Yi,et al.Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2023,41(02):518-531. DOI：

摘要

Abstract

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China

and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks. Therefore

it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster. We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold

distribution function family

and composite extreme value. The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis

the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment

and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level. The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples. The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples. Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples

they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years. The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent. When classifying low-risk areas

the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration

China (SOA

2012) are more conservative. In the high-risk areas

the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

关键词

Keywords

references

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