An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency

Guilin LIU; Siyu DING; Shichun SONG; Bokai YANG; Pengyu ZHU; Liping WANG

doi:10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4

Your Location：

Home >

Browse articles >

An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency

Physics | Updated：2026-05-07

- An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 44, Issue 2, Pages: 545-559(2026)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
  2.Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group Co., Ltd., Qingdao 266500, China
  3.School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
- Author bio：
  
  dsy18841262628@163.com
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4
  CLC：
- Received：05 December 2024，
  
  Accepted：29 April 2025，
  
  Online First：06 June 2025，
  
  Published：01 March 2026
- Accepted：
Scan QR Code
LIU Guilin,DING Siyu,SONG Shichun,et al.An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2026,44(02):545-559.
DOI：

LIU Guilin,DING Siyu,SONG Shichun,et al.An uncertainty evaluation for storm surge risk analysis based on information utilization efficiency[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2026,44(02):545-559. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-025-4329-4.

摘要

Abstract

With the development of methods for predicting extreme hydrological elements using probabilistic approaches

several commonly used methods have emerged for analyzing the risk of storm surge disasters

including the Annual Maxima method

the Peak-Over-Threshold method

the Gumbel distribution

and the Weibull distribution. Meanwhile

and emphases have been placed on assessing and comparing the applicability and stability of these various methods. To evaluate the rationality of different methods

we an entropy uncertainty analysis method was introduced based on information utilization efficiency

in which the sample Stochastic uncertainty is measured by the ratio of information entropy before and after sampling

i.e.

the information extraction efficiency of the sampling method. Additionally

the cognitive uncertainty of the research method is assessed by the ratio of mutual information between the model and the sample to the information entropy of the sample

i.e.

the information extraction efficiency of the mathematical model. Furthermore

we incorporated the group probability calculation method

information entropy and mutual information theory to analyze and calculate the entropy uncertainty more accurately. By applying this analysis to the design wave height and the recurrence period projected in the sea area west Guangdong of China

we believed that the most reasonable hazard assessment method shall be based on the over-threshold method combined with the Pareto distribution. Conversely

the assessment method based on the process extreme value method is deemed insufficiently reasonable and requires further research.

关键词

Keywords

references

Acitas S . 2018 . A new weighted distribution as an extension of the generalized half-normal distribution with applications . Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation , 88 ( 12 ): 2325 - 2341 , https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2018.1462812 https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2018.1462812 .

Alexander C , Sarabia J M . 2012 . Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk . Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis , 32 ( 8 ): 1293 - 1308 , https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01824.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01824.x .

Anghel C G , Ilinca C . 2022 . Parameter estimation for some probability distributions used in hydrology . Applied Sciences , 12 ( 24 ): 12588 , https://doi.org/10.3390/APP122412588 https://doi.org/10.3390/APP122412588 .

Carreau J , Naveau P , Sauquet E . 2009 . A statistical rainfall-runoff mixture model with heavy-tailed components . Water Resources Research , 45 ( 10 ): W 10437 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007880 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007880 .

Chao A N , Shen T J . 2003 . Nonparametric estimation of Shannon's index of diversity when there are unseen species in sample . Environmental and Ecological Statistics , 10 ( 4 ): 429 - 443 , https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026096204727 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026096204727 .

Chen B Y , Kou Y , Zhao D et al . 2021 . Maximum entropy distribution function and uncertainty evaluation criteria . China Ocean Engineering , 35 ( 2 ): 238 - 249 , https://doi.org/10.1007/S13344-021-0021-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/S13344-021-0021-4 .

Chiu S . 1996 . A comparative review of bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation . Statistica Sinica , 6 ( 1 ): 129 - 145 , https://www.jstor.org/stable/24306003 https://www.jstor.org/stable/24306003 .

Deng W , Li X Y , Xu J J et al . 2025 . BFKD: blockchain-based federated knowledge distillation for aviation Internet of Things . IEEE Transactions on Reliability , 74 ( 2 ): 2626 - 2639 , https://doi.org/10.1109/tr.2024.3474710 https://doi.org/10.1109/tr.2024.3474710 .

Ebel B A , Moody J A . 2020 . Parameter estimation for multiple post-wildfire hydrologic models . Hydrological Processes , 34 ( 21 ): 4049 - 4066 , https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13865 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13865 .

Gamet P , Jalbert J . 2022 . A flexible extended generalized Pareto distribution for tail estimation . Environmetrics , 33 ( 6 ): e 2744 , https://doi.org/10.1002/ENV.2744 https://doi.org/10.1002/ENV.2744 .

Guan Q S , Peng W . 2015 . Parameter estimation for geometric-gumbel compound extreme-value distribution based on the pi-th quantiles of samples . In: Proceedings of the 2015 Conference on Informatization in Education, Management and Business . Atlantis Press, Guangzhou, China . p. 60 - 64 , https://doi.org/10.2991/iemb-15.2015.12 https://doi.org/10.2991/iemb-15.2015.12 .

Hausser J , Strimmer K . 2009 . Entropy inference and the James-Stein estimator, with application to nonlinear gene association networks . Journal of Machine Learning Research , 10 : 1469 - 1484 . https://do 10.32614/cran.package.entropy http://dx.doi.org/10.32614/cran.package.entropy

Henderson L , Vedral V . 2000 . Information, relative entropy of entanglement, and irreversibility . Physical Review Letters , 84 ( 10 ): 2263 - 2266 , https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.84.2263 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.84.2263 .

Huang C , Wu D Q , Zhou X B et al . 2024 . Competitive swarm optimizer with dynamic multi-competitions and convergence accelerator for large-scale optimization problems. Applied Soft Computing , 167 : 112252 , https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ASOC.2024.112252 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ASOC.2024.112252 .

Hussain T , Bakouch H S , Chesneau C . 2019 . A new probability model with application to heavy-tailed hydrological data . Environmental and Ecological Statistics , 26 ( 2 ): 127 - 151 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-019-00422-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-019-00422-7 .

Lall U , Moon Y I , Bosworth K . 1993 . Kernel flood frequency estimators: bandwidth selection and kernel choice . Water Resources Research , 29 ( 4 ): 1003 - 1015 , https://doi.org/10.1029/92WR02466 https://doi.org/10.1029/92WR02466 .

Lei F H , Xie B T , Wang J Q . 2012 . Uncertainty analysis of marine environment elements calculation . The Ocean Engineering , 30 ( 4 ): 109 - 117 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00470.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00470.1. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Li X Y , Zhao H M , Xu J J et al . 2024 . APDPFL: anti-poisoning attack decentralized privacy enhanced federated learning scheme for flight operation data sharing . IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communications , 23 ( 12 ): 19098 - 19109 , https://doi.org/10.1109/TWC.2024.3479149 https://doi.org/10.1109/TWC.2024.3479149 .

Liu D F , Wang D , Wang Y K et al . 2016 . Entropy of hydrological systems under small samples: uncertainty and variability . Journal of Hydrology , 532 : 163 - 176 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.019 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.019 .

Liu G L , Cui K , Jiang S et al . 2021 . A new empirical distribution for the design wave heights under the impact of typhoons. Applied Ocean Research , 111 : 102679 , https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APOR.2021.102679 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APOR.2021.102679 .

Liu G L , Fang D , Song S C et al . 2023a . Calculation of design wave height and its application base on independent sample . Journal of Marine Sciences , 41 ( 3 ): 73 - 82 , https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2023.03.007. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2023.03.007. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Liu G L , Zhou X S , Kou Y et al . 2023b . Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea . Journal of Oceanology and Limnology , 41 ( 2 ): 427 - 443 , https://doi.org/10.1007/S00343-022-2052-Y https://doi.org/10.1007/S00343-022-2052-Y .

Long H Y , Chen T , Chen H Y et al . 2024 . Principal space approximation ensemble discriminative marginalized least-squares regression for hyperspectral image classification. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence , 133 : 108031 , https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENGAPPAI.2024.108031 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENGAPPAI.2024.108031 .

Marra F , Amponsah W , Papalexiou S M . 2023 . Non-asymptotic Weibull tails explain the statistics of extreme daily precipitation. Advances in Water Resources , 173 : 104388 , https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2023.104388 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2023.104388 .

Martins A L A , Liska G R , Beijo L A et al . 2020 . Generalized Pareto distribution applied to the analysis of maximum rainfall events in Uruguaiana, RS, Brazil . SN Applied Sciences , 2 ( 9 ): 1479 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-03199-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-03199-8 .

Pan X , Rahman A , Haddad K et al . 2022 . Peaks-over-threshold model in flood frequency analysis: a scoping review . Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment , 36 ( 9 ): 2419 - 2435 , https://doi.org/10.1007/S00477-022-02174-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/S00477-022-02174-6 .

Shannon C E . 1948 . A mathematical theory of communication . The Bell System Technical Journal , 27 ( 3 ): 379 - 423 , https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x .

Singh S K . 2019 . Dynamic parameter estimation for hydrological model . International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology , 9 ( 2 ): 124 - 136 , https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2019.098159 https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2019.098159 .

Wang L P , Chen B Y , Chen C et al . 2016 . Application of linear mean-square estimation in ocean engineering . China Ocean Engineering , 30 ( 1 ): 149 - 160 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-016-0007-9 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-016-0007-9 .

Zhuang C Q . 2005 . Basis of Applied Mathematical Statistics . South China University of Technology Press, Guangzhou . p. 222 - 305 .

Views

Downloads

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

Submit

Tools

Publicity Resources

Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

Numerical study on effect of tidal phase on storm surge in the South Yellow Sea

Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China

Related Author

Baiyu CHEN

Yi KOU

Fang WU

Guilin LIU

Xinsheng ZHOU

Daniel ZHAO

Yu XU

Chengtuan YIN

Related Institution

Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara

Dornsife College, University of Southern California

College of Engineering, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley

Department of Mathematics, Harvard University

Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Engineering, Ocean University of China

Address：Editorial Office of JOL, 88 Haijun Rd. Qingdao, 266000, China
Tel：+86-532-82898754 Email：jol@qdio.ac.cn
Technical support is provided by Beijing Founder electronics co., LTD 京ICP备09064830号-19 京公网安备11010802024621
It is recommended to read the content of this site in Chrome&IE9+. Please switch to extreme mode in browser 360.
Cookies We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. By continuing, you agree to the use of cookies.

⁰