Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios

Zhiping FENG; Wei YU

doi:10.1007/s00343-024-4115-8

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Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios

Aquaculture and Fisheries | Updated：2025-08-07

- Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 43, Issue 4, Pages: 1361-1373(2025)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  2.National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  3.Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
- Author bio：
  
  wyu@shou.edu.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-024-4115-8
  CLC：
- Received：24 April 2024，
  
  Published：01 July 2025
- Accepted：
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FENG Zhiping,YU Wei.Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2025,43(04):1361-1373.
DOI：

FENG Zhiping,YU Wei.Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2025,43(04):1361-1373. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-024-4115-8.

摘要

Abstract

As an economically crucial species in the southeast Pacific Ocean

understanding the spatiotemporal distribution changes of the habitat of

Trachurus

murphyi

under the influence of climate change is essential for effective resource assessment and management. The spati

otemporal changes in suitable habitats of

murphyi

under three climate change scenarios (SSP126

SSP370

and SSP585) of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were explored based on key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of the species in a habitat suitability index (HSI) model. Results show that seawater temperature would increase under different scenarios

while the mixed layer depths would decrease under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios but vary slightly under the SSP126 scenario

which is similar to the variation in different climate periods. The positive difference in seawater temperature will be distributed in the central

southern

and offshore regions of Chile

and the negative difference in mixed layer depths be accounted for a large region. Under different climate scenarios

the HSI value for fishing ground and the overall proportion of suitable habitat area of

murphyi

will be decreased over the forecasted period. The suitable habitat of

murphyi

is concentrated in the 42°S‍‍‍–‍47°S area and will move to the southwest in different climate periods. Based on short-term climate change

the proportion of suitable habitat areas in the high seas of Chile is larger than in the exclusive economic zone under medium- and long-term climate change under different scenarios. The results of the gravity center of suitable

murphyi

habitat indicates that the spatial distribution of

murphyi

might be related to variations in oceanic currents. These findings provide insights for the effective fisheries resource management of

murphyi

in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.

关键词

Keywords

references

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