Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Yunxia GUO; Yijun HOU; Peng QI

doi:10.1007/s00343-020-9306-3

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Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Physics | Updated：2023-06-06

- Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 39, Issue 2, Pages: 420-436(2021)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  3.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
  4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
- Author bio：
  
  HOU Yijun, E-mail: yjhou@qdio.ac.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-020-9306-3
  CLC：
- Received：21 November 2019，
  
  Accepted：02 April 2020，
  
  Online First：21 April 2021，
  
  Published：2021-03
- Accepted：
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Yunxia GUO, Yijun HOU, Peng QI. Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2021, 39(2): 420-436.
DOI：

Yunxia GUO, Yijun HOU, Peng QI. Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2021, 39(2): 420-436. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-020-9306-3.

摘要

Abstract

Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast. A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model

and used to generate 1 000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin. The influences of typhoon decay model

track model

and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated. We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed. Over most of the southeast coast of China

the predicted wind speed by the non-simplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model. The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different. Four super typhoons Meranti (2016)

Hato (2017)

Mangkhut (2018)

and Lekima (2019) were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard.

关键词

Keywords

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