Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

Baiyu CHEN; Yi KOU; Fang WU; Liping WANG; Guilin LIU

doi:10.1007/s00343-020-0327-8

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Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

Physics | Updated：2023-05-20

- Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 39, Issue 4, Pages: 1188-1197(2021)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.College of Engineering, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley 94720, USA
  2.Dornsife College, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90007, USA
  3.Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara 93106, USA
  4.School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China
  5.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China
- Author bio：
  
  Guilin LIU, E-mail:liuguilin73@ouc.edu.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-020-0327-8
  CLC：
- Received：24 August 2020，
  
  Accepted：27 September 2020，
  
  Online First：26 October 2020，
  
  Published：2021-07
- Accepted：
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Baiyu CHEN, Yi KOU, Fang WU, et al. Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2021, 39(4): 1188-1197.
DOI：

Baiyu CHEN, Yi KOU, Fang WU, et al. Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2021, 39(4): 1188-1197. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-020-0327-8.

摘要

Abstract

The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model

and the calculation results of different distribution models are often different. It is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea area. In this paper

we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model

by incorporating the influence of sample information on the model information entropy

such as sample size

degree of dispersion

and sampling error. Results show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information entropy. Within the same group of data

the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty

while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall uncertainty. In other words

the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters.

关键词

Keywords

references

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