Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation

Qian ZHOU; Wansuo DUAN; Junya HU

doi:10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4

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Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation

Special Section on Indo-Pac Project | Updated：2023-04-27

- Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 38, Issue 6, Pages: 1602-1615(2020)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
  2.Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
  3.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  5.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
- Author bio：
  
  DUAN Wansuo, duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4
  CLC：
- Received：12 March 2019，
  
  Accepted：03 May 2019，
  
  Online First：24 June 2019，
  
  Published：2020-11
- Accepted：
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Qian ZHOU, Wansuo DUAN, Junya HU. Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2020, 38(6): 1602-1615.
DOI：

Qian ZHOU, Wansuo DUAN, Junya HU. Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2020, 38(6): 1602-1615. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4.

摘要

Abstract

Based on initial errors of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean that are most likely to induce spring predictability barrier (SPB) for the El Niño prediction

the sensitive area of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction starting from January is identified using the CESM1.0.3 (Community Earth System Model)

a fully coupled global climate model. The sensitive area locates mainly in the subsurface of eastern Indian Ocean. The effectiveness of applying targeted observation in the sensitive area is also evaluated in an attempt to improve the El Niño prediction skill. The results of sensitivity experiments indicate that if initial errors exist only in the tropical Indian Ocean

applying targeted observation in the sensitive area in the Indian Ocean can significantly improve the El Niño prediction. In particular

for SPB-related El Niño events

when initial errors of sea temperature exist both in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean

which is much closer to the realistic predictions

if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Pacific

the prediction skills of SPB-related El Niño events can be improved by 20.3% in general. Moreover

if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean in addition

the improvement of prediction skill can be increased by 25.2%. Considering the volume of sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean is about 1/3 of that in the tropical Pacific Ocean

the prediction skill improvement per cubic kilometer in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean is competitive to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Additional to the sensitive area of the tropical Pacific Ocean

sensitive area of the tropical Indian Ocean is also a very effective and cost-saving area for the application of targeted observations to improve El Niño forecast skills.

关键词

Keywords

references

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