Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

Yunxia GUO; Yijun HOU; Peng QI

doi:10.1007/s00343-019-8231-9

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Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

Updated：2023-05-20

- Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation
- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology Vol. 37, Issue 6, Pages: 1994-2013(2019)
- Affiliations：
  
  1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
  2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  3.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
  4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
- Author bio：
  
  HOU Yijun, E-mail:yjhou@qdio.ac.cn
  QI Peng, E-mail:pqi@qdio.ac.cn
- Funds：
- DOI：10.1007/s00343-019-8231-9
  CLC：
- Received：07 September 2018，
  
  Accepted：06 December 2018，
  
  Online First：28 February 2019，
  
  Published：2019-11
- Accepted：
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Yunxia GUO, Yijun HOU, Peng QI. Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019, 37(6): 1994-2013.
DOI：

Yunxia GUO, Yijun HOU, Peng QI. Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019, 37(6): 1994-2013. DOI： 10.1007/s00343-019-8231-9.

摘要

Abstract

As one of the most serious natural disasters

many typhoons affect southeastern China every year. Taking Shenzhen

a coastal city in southeast China as an example

we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis. By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute

China Meteorological Administration (CMASTI)

typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen. We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons. In addition

the Yan Meng (YM) wind field model was introduced

and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed. Using the YM wind field model

extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons. The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.

关键词

Keywords

references

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